Nigeria’s Merchandise Trade Q1 2026

Nigeria’s total merchandise trade rises 2.68% YoY to $25.15bn in Q1 2026:

• Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus more than doubled to $5.45 billion in Q1 2026, compared with $2.60 billion in Q1 2025, as stronger export earnings coincided with a decline in import demand.
• Total exports rose by 12.94% year-on-year to $15.30 billion, driven largely by a 13.39% increase in oil exports to $13.0 billion.
• The growth in oil exports was supported by stronger earnings from non-crude oil exports, particularly natural gas, gas oils, and aviation turbine fuel (jet fuel),
• which more than offset the 4.99% decline in crude oil export receipts.
• Crude oil exports weakened during the quarter, reflecting lower production, which averaged 1.388 million barrels per day (mbpd) compared with 1.468 mbpd in Q1 2025.
• Imports declined by 10.03% year-on-year to $9.85 billion in Q1 2026. The moderation in import demand was largely driven by a sharp reduction in Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) imports, whose share of total imports fell from 13.46% in Q1 2025 to less than 1.0% in Q1 2026.
• This reflects the growing impact of domestic refining capacity, particularly the Dangote Refinery, which now supplies more than 90% of Nigeria’s PMS consumption.
• Consequently, PMS imports declined by 95.77% to $63.15 million in Q1 2026, from $1.49 billion in the corresponding period of 2025, significantly reducing the country’s dependence on imported fuel and easing pressure on foreign exchange demand.
• Capacity expansion across key sectors of the economy boosted demand for capital goods imports, which rose to $2.19 billion in Q1 2026 from $1.71 billion in the
• corresponding period of 2025.
• The increase suggests sustained investment in machinery, equipment, and productive assets, reflecting ongoing efforts by firms to expand production capacity and improve operational efficiency.

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