Nigeria Inflation Forecast – January 2026
Nigeria Inflation Forecast – January 2026
Following the sharp moderation in December (15.15% YoY), our analysis suggests that January headline inflation is likely to rise mechanically to 18.98% on a year-on-year basis. This expected increase is primarily driven by base effects rather than a renewed surge in prices. Key highlights include:
- Month-on-month pressures are projected to remain moderate at around 0.4%, supported by:
- Easing food prices
- Contained energy costs
- A stronger naira
For inflation to decline year-on-year in January, an unusually large negative month-on-month contraction of nearly 3% would be required, which may be inconsistent with prevailing price dynamics.
The anticipated uptick is largely a base-effect outcome associated with the CPI normalization by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in January 2026, rather than a deterioration in underlying inflation conditions.
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