December 2025 Inflation Preview

Summary

This note provides a forward-looking assessment of Nigeria’s December 2025 inflation outcome.

Globally, disinflation continued into late 2025, with inflation easing across major economies and parts of Africa, supported by softer commodity prices. World Bank data show that crude oil and Brent prices declined further in December, helping to reduce global energy cost pressures, while most food commodities remained subdued despite a seasonal rise in rice prices.

For Nigeria, easing global energy prices, relative exchange-rate stability, and a domestic reduction in PMS prices, following Dangote Refinery’s price cut, are expected to support moderation in transport and logistics costs. According to the NBS, average PMS prices stood at N1,061.35 per litre in November, suggesting scope for softer fuel prices when December data is released. While food inflation may face some pressure as harvest-season effects fade, overall conditions point to limited imported inflation.

On balance, headline inflation is expected to continue easing on a year-on-year basis in December, with inflation projected at 11.5 percent, even as short-term pressures persist in selected food items, particularly grains.

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