Nigeria Inflation Forecast – February 2026

Nigeria Inflation Forecast – February 2026

Following the sharp moderation in January (15.10% YoY), our analysis suggests that February headline inflation is expected to ease further to around 13.47% on a year-on-year basis. This continued decline reflects favourable base effects and sustained moderation in underlying price pressures.

Key highlights include:

• Month-on-month pressures are projected to rise modestly to around 0.6%, driven by:
• Moderate increases in domestic food prices (food price index up 0.56% MoM)
• Higher energy costs (pump prices up 3.61% MoM)
• Partially offset by a stronger naira (appreciated 4.24% to N1,356/$)
• Global food and energy prices firmed in February, with the FAO Food Price Index rising 0.9% and Brent crude increasing to $71.1/barrel, exerting mild imported inflation pressures.
• Domestic price movements were mixed, beans, maize, and vegetable oil recorded increase, while tomatoes and yam prices declined during the month.

The anticipated February outturn points to continued disinflationary momentum, supported by base effects and currency appreciation, even as modest month-on-month pressures persist.

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